Africa as a whole has been facing existential threats ever since most of the continent gained independence 60 to 70 years ago. Many of the continent’s countries have yet to embark on the process of economic development, often undermined by conflicts whose underlying causes are both endogenous and exogenous. The factors destabilizing social peace are multiple, and can originate from within countries, notably through poor governance, community conflicts and the weakness of states, linked in particular to their systemic configuration. Threats can also be exogenous, notably from interference by foreign powers, which has become one of the main threats to the continent’s stability, in addition to international terrorism, economic crises and international conflicts that impact global supply chains. This article focuses on these major endogenous and exogenous instability factors of socio-political and economic origin.
Dichotomy Between Endogenous and Exogenous Threats
Endogenous threats, from a political angle, could be described as destabilizing factors originating from within a nation, the state, the system of governance, the individuals who make them up and their practices. They are often threats emanating from structural weaknesses or issues of interest and power within a nation or state system. They may be social, political, economic or technical in nature. Exogenous conflicts are threats external to a country, and may arise from weaknesses in the international system, power struggles, the economic environment or natural disasters. States generally find it more difficult to prevent exogenous threats, which are often unpredictable and can be complex in nature.
Endogenous Threats in Africa
Poor Governance: Africa is still home to most of the world’s poorest countries. Despite its wealth of resources and strategic raw materials for production cycles, the continent is lagging behind economically and sinking deeper into underdevelopment every year. This is due in particular to poor governance, which represents one of the major threats to the stability of African countries. Corruption, nepotism, financial embezzlement and a crisis in the rule of law are just some of the recurring phenomena in African countries, mainly due to poor governance on the part of elected authorities. Poor governance of strategic resources such as oil, gold, zircon, cobalt, etc. is a source of frustration for populations, who often end up opposing a dictatorial state that uses repression to allow impunity and arbitrariness to persist. The absence of the rule of law, democracy and a strong justice system prevents citizens from taking justice into their own hands and bringing about change through peaceful means. This often leads to conflict and class warfare between the victimized population and the oligarchy privileged by bad governance.
Inter-Community Conflicts: these arise between different ethnic, religious or cultural groups within the same country or region. It is also a threat that can be seen as a major consequence of bad governance. They often occur in states where social inequalities between groups persist, land inequalities are a source of unrest between herders and farmers, social policies are unequal between groups of different religions, and discourses incite stigmatization and marginalization. Inter-community conflicts often give rise to separatist movements and represent a major threat to the very existence of states.
Political İnstability Linked to the Transition of Power: this is undoubtedly the major threat to the political life of African states. The lack of a democratic culture means that the transition of power in African countries is often painful. Elected leaders are not really prepared to lose power, and use repression to stay in power. This explains the forty-year regimes in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Togo, where power has been handed down from father to son. This absence of a democratic cycle of renewal at the head of states means that the putsches that have resurfaced on the continent in recent years are increasingly legitimate in the eyes of African populations. If African citizens are unable to change the leaders at the head of their states through democratic means, armies are positioning themselves as salvific alternatives with coups de force, but which can lead to other sources of instability. By way of example, although the putsches that have taken place in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea since 2020 have been strongly supported by the population, the fact that the military has remained in power for so long now represents a source of tension, especially in view of its hardening stance on the management of freedom of expression.
Exogenous Threats to the Stability of African Countries
Foreign İnterference: the involvement of foreign powers in African tensions is becoming increasingly apparent. Foreign interference and the way in which the power stakes of foreign powers considerably affect African countries. Foreign powers can interfere in the internal political processes of an African country by supporting political factions, financing election campaigns, or exerting diplomatic pressure to promote their own geopolitical interests. Foreign military interventions, whether declared or not, can have destabilizing consequences for the security and sovereignty of African countries, and can sometimes lead to protracted conflicts and humanitarian crises. This is particularly noticeable in Libya, with foreign powers behind Khalifa Haftar and others behind the UN-recognized administration. It is also the case in the war currently raging in Sudan between the army around General Abdel Fattah Al Burhane and the Rapid Intervention Forces around Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as “Hemedti”. Both are backed by foreign powers, who often fail to recognize their role.
International Terrorism: this refers to acts of violence perpetrated by groups or individuals motivated by extremist ideologies, often with transnational links, and aimed at achieving political, religious or ideological objectives. The countries of the Sahel, Mozambique, Angola, Uganda and Nigeria, among others, are increasingly affected by terrorism, which relies on local armed groups but has its roots in international terrorist groups born in the Middle East. Al-Qaeda has extended its tentacles into North Africa and the Sahel with AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb), and Daesh is expanding its influence in Africa with proxies in several countries. Martin Ewi, an African expert, had declared that the Islamic State “has extended its influence beyond measure” in Africa, with at least 20 countries directly affected by the extremist group’s activity and more than 20 others “used for logistics and to mobilize funds and other resources”. Terrorism is seriously destabilizing the continent, claiming thousands of lives, creating millions of refugees, destroying schools and impacting energy installations, and stealing the property of local populations.
Major Economic Crises and İnternational Conflicts: Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to international crises and conflicts. Global economic crises, such as economic recessions, financial crises and economic shocks, can have a significant impact on African economies, resulting in reduced foreign investment, higher unemployment, lower tax revenues, devaluation of national currencies and worsening living conditions for many Africans. International conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine since 2022 and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, have had a considerable impact on economies, especially in Africa. Ukrainian grain blockades and supply chain malfunctions, particularly around the Red Sea, have often had an impact on the African market, causing grain shortages or price rises. International crises emanating from the Middle East can also easily push up oil prices, which can have an impact on the energy policies of the more importing African countries.
In short, the threats to African politics and geopolitics are manifold, but can be divided into two categories: exogenous threats and endogenous threats. Exogenous threats relate to destabilizing factors foreign to nations and state systems on the continent, ranging from foreign interference to international conflicts, transnational terrorism and major economic crises. Endogenous threats relate to destabilizing factors within states, individuals and their practices, ranging from bad governance to intercommunity conflicts. All these threats facing the continent have so far been detrimental to its development, and also demonstrate the inability of States and the African Union to stabilize the continent.